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Robert Todd Carroll

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Texas-sharpshooter fallacy, ػ罺

ػ罺 , epidemiologist ӵϻ ߻ (clustering illusion) ̸ ̴. ġ ڰ ִ ڴ, ֺ ߻ ϰ, ȯ ΰ ̿, ΰ谡 ִٰ . ( 쿬 Ͼ Ȳ), ǿ Ȯ Ģ 쿬 ִ.

̱ ڰ ȯ ܿ õ . "ȯο ̶ Ȯϰ Ȯε ϳ . "(ϵ, Gawande)

ػ罺 ̾߱⿡ Ǿ οȴ. , 갣 ǥ ϰ , Ѿ ׷ȴ ̴. , ʸ ϰ, ׸ 輱 ׸ ̴. (ϵ, Gawande)


б ڷ

Gawande, Atul. "The Cancer-Cluster Myth," The New Yorker, February 8, 1999, pp. 34-37.

Gilovich, T., R. Vallone, and A. Tversky. "The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences," Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295-314.

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn't' So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993).

Copyright 1999
Robert Todd Carroll

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