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Robert Todd Carroll

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self-deception ڱ⸸

б 94%, ڽ Ͽ ־ ɷ ϴٰ Ѵ.

л 25%, ڽ Ÿΰ ɷ ؼ 1% ٰ ϰ ִ.

л 70%, ڽ ̶̻ ϰ ִ. ϶ ϴ л, 2% ʾҴ.
---
丶 κġ How We Know What Isn't So


Ǵ 85% ġε κƮԼ ޴ ϴٰ 46% ǻ簡 ȸκ ޴ ϴٰ ߴ.

--Dr. Ashley Wazana JAMA Vol. 283 No. 3, January 19, 2000


ȸ ׵ ɷ¿ ؼ ġ ̴ ִ...̷ 򰡴 κδ ̷ о߿ ɼ 2 ֱ ̴. ̷ ߸ а Ӹ ƴ϶, ׵ ҿ ̰ ݰ ϴ ڱ⼺ ɷ(metacognitive ability) Ѿ ̴.
--"Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments," by Justin Kruger and David Dunning Department of Psychology Cornell University, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology December 1999 Vol. 77, No. 6, 1121-1134.

ڱ⸸̶ , ̳ ġ ̳ ϵ ϴ Ǵ ̴. ϸ, ڱ⸸ ڱ ڽ ȭϴ ̴.

öڳ ɸڰ ڱ⸸ ؼ κ ǽ ǵ . ׵ Ϲ ڱ ⸸ ϰų Ȥ ؾ  Ѵ. ڱ⸸  ۿϴ° ϱ ؼ, self-interest (), , , Ҿ ׸ ׿ܿ ǽ ٶ ϰϴ ɸ ο ָϰ ִ. Ϲ ʷδ, Ű ̰ Ѵٴ иԿ ұϰ, ̰ ̾߱ Ѵٰ ϴ θ ִ. , θ 츮 ̰ ϱ⸦ ϱ ̸ ŷؾ Ѵٰ ڱ ڽ δٰ Ѵ. , ̿ Ⱑ ų, Ÿ ùٸ Ǵϴ ɷ ϱ , Ϲ ߸ ߸ ֵȴ. ڴ , Ȥ ̰, ̼ ̴. ڴ ¿ ̴. ,  νİ 迡 κ ϰ ߷ Ѵ.

׷ θ ڽ ̵ ϴ , ̸ ˰ ̵ ð ± ̸ ϴ ׷ ʱ ִ. ׷ θ, ǽ Ҹ ̸, θ õ ٸ 鿡 ؼ ϰ, ׵ ˰ ִ ̴. ̷ θ ڸ ʰ ڽ ̸ ϴ Ϳ ̴. ᱹ, ڱ⸸, ǽ ⳪ ո þ (cognitive) 𸥴. ڱ⸸, ⸸̳ ⸸ ƴϰ, ⺻ ڱ ̿ ؼ ˰ ְ, ݵ ̴ Ѱ ٸ ִٴ Ͱ, ڽ ̸ ϴ ؼ ƹ͵ 𸣰 , ڽ ̸ ǽϱ⿡ ٰŸ , ϰ ΰ 𸥴. ڿ Ȳ Ͽ ̰ ϰ ִٴ Ϳ Ű е ٰ θ ̴. θ Ʋ ̾ٸ, ׵ Ǽ ڱ ⸸ ƴ϶ ִ. 츮 θ ڱ ⸸ , ׵ ܼ Ǽ ͻӸ ƴ϶ ̶̼ ִ. 츮  װ Ȯ ְڴ°?

, (1) θ ڽ ̰  ϰ ִٰ ִ. (2)Ű ˸ Ÿ ִ. (3) θ ڽ ڸ ŷ ʴ. ׷ (4) θ ڽ ̸ ϴ ϴ ſ ̷ο ʰ ְڴ. ̷ 쿡 θʿ  ǽİ ո (Ǵ ) ۿߴٰ ʰ ϴ ǻ Ұϴٰ ִ. ׷, ո ų ɷ(cognitive incompetence) Ѵٸ, 쿡 ǽ ɸ ʿϴ.

츮  Ȳ ڱ⸸ 츮 ü ̰ ؾ Ѵ. , ڱ ⸸ ϱ ؼ, ڱ ⸸ ǽ ο ƴ ˾ƾ ʿ伺 ִ. ٷ ESP ٿ¡, TT, FC ڿ Ʈ ׿ Skeptic's Dictionary ϴ ϴ ̴.

丶 κġ(Thomas Gilovich) "츮  ׷ ʴٴ ִ°?" ؼ ؼϰ, 츮 Ʒ ⿡ ؾ Ѵٰ ϰ ִ.

  1. ڷḦ Ͽ ãƳ.
  2. ҿ, Ǵ ʴ ڷḦ ߸ ؼϰ 忡 ʹ ߿ϰ ϰ, ϴ ͸ ٷų ãƺ ʴ´.
  3. ϰ ͸ ԰ Ͽ, ڽ ̷ϴ ڷ ޾Ƶ̰, ׷ ڷ ޾Ƶδ.

ڰ Ȯϰ ǵǰ, Ͱ ǽϰ, ȭŰ, ݺ ǽϰ, ǥ 䱸ϴ , ̷ ڱ⸸ ̴. ׷ , ڱ ڽ ̰ų ƴ ϰ Ǵ Ŀٶ Ѵ. , ̰͵ ڰ ƴ ų Ȯ ų Ȯϱ ؼ ؾ ϴ ͵ ٷ ̷ ̴. ڴ ̷ ׻ ο ΰ, ʵ Ѵ.

׷ , Ҹ ϸ ڽ ⸸ ʴ´ٰ ϰ ִ. ,  Ҹ ȣȴٰ ϴ , ڱ ⸸ . , ε ְų, ȯ̳ ٰ ϴ ¥ ǰ ϴ ׵ Ҹ ֱ ƴ϶ ݴ̱ ̴. ׵ ڽ Ҹ ʱ , ׵ ǰ ϴ Ǵٰ ȮѴ. ǰ߿ ߰ϴ ̴. ݴ ߰ϴ ͵ ɼϴ. ׵ ǰ ϴµ  ־, ϱ⵵ Ѵ. ׵ ߸ (cognitive)̰, (emotional) ƴϴ. ׵ ڷḦ ߸ؼߴ. ڽ ִ ڷῡ Ǹ , Ϳ ʰų Ǵ ̴. ׵ ڷḦ ϸ, Ͱ ü Ұϴٰ ϴ ϴ 쵵 ִ. ׵ ǥ Ȥ ü ҸȮϰ ָص, ̰ ڽſ ϰ ؼϴµ ſ ɼϴ. ϰ ͸ ӽù ̿Ͽ ȸϴµ õ 쵵 ִ.

׷ , ׵ ð , ̿ؼ ׽Ʈ ִ Ѵٸ, ״ ְ, ߿ Ȳ ̴. DKL (DKL LifeGuard) ȣϰų, 踦 ȣϴ , ݵ ׵ 踦 屸 ̲ ʿ .

׵ ܼ, ϴµ ذ Ǵ ϻ ִ. ġ(therapeutic touch) ϰ ִ ȣ, FC(facilitated communication), ESP, , ̿, ũŻ Ŀ, ٿ¡ ȣϴ ó, ׸ ſ ؼ ٸ ޾Ƶ̴ ̴. ϸ ڱ⸸ ݵ ϴٴ ǹϴ ƴ϶, ν , Ȥ ִ.

, ڱ⸸ ׻ ƴϰ, δ Ǵ 쵵 ִ. ڽ ɷ° λ öϰ ϰ ̶, 츮 ϰ 𸥴.

õ ׸ : ad hoc hypothesis, cold reading, communal reinforcement, confirmation biascontrol study, Occam's razor, pathological science, the placebo effect, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking, subjective validation, testimonials  and wishful thinking.


б ڷ

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993).

Kahane, Howard. Logic and Contemporary Rhetoric: The Use of Reason in Everyday Life, 8th edition (Wadsworth, 1997).

Taylor, Shelly E. Positive Illusions: Creative Self-Deception and the Healthy Mind (New York: Basic Books, 1989).

Wiseman, Richard. Deception & Self-Deception : Investigating Psychics (Prometheus, 1997).

Copyright 2000
Robert Todd Carroll

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