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Robert Todd Carroll

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the regressive fallacy, ȸ

ȸ (regressive fallacy)̶ , ڿ̰ ʿ ߻ϴ  Ȯ 䵿,  ߻ μ ϴ ̴[Gilovich, p. 26]. ְ ̳ ʿ ̴ֱ. Ⱓ, , Ȥ Ⱓ , , ϰ Ⱓ ִ. ̷ ڿ 䵿 ϸ ο ڱ ⸸̳ post hoc reasoning ȴ.

, ۳, Ȥ , ո  ų Ź߿ ڼ â ִ. , ̷ ǰ ̴. ǰ ǰ ׷ų ƿ ٴ ̴. ״ ڼ â ̶ ̴. ״ ڽ ö󰡰 ڿ Ͼ 䵿(ֱ)̶ ̴. ״ ̷ ǰ ϱ ȮϿ ſ ̷ Ͼ 캸 ̴. װ Ǵ κ ſ Ȯ ̴. ٽ ̴.

̿ , ش κ "ȸ" Ѵ. ̰ θ 踦 ý 濡 ʷ ̸ ٿ. ( 1885⿡  "Regression Toward Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature" ϴ Ǿ. ) ״ Ű ū θ Ƶ Ű ũ, Ű θ Ƶ Ű ⿡ Ű θŭ ش ʰ տ ٴ ߰ߴ.

۴ ϵǾ Ƿ ڽ Ȯ ִ. ߿  ǰ ϸ ȴٴ ϴ ִ. ̵ , ( ۿ Ḧ ؼ ȵȴ.) ٰŷ ϸ鼭 ̷ ڿ 䵿̳ ȸͿ ƴ϶ ϴ ִ°?

, ȸ , ġ ġ ȿ ϱ . ̳ , dz ֱ ãƿ´. ī̷ƽ ġᳪ, ڼ Ʈ ġḦ ޴ κ ֱ ְ 찡 . ̷ ְ ȴ. ̷ پ ̷ ġ ̴ ̶ ִ. ڰ ˱ ؼ ϴ , ̷ ΰ 迡 ؼ ӱ ̴.

̵ ġ ȿ ȿ ٰ 񳭹 ʴ´. ڸ޵ Pat Paulsen ƼľƳ ġϱ ؼ ü ġḦ ޾ ģ ׾ ġᰡ ġ ʾҴ. "ü" ġḦ ް ִ , ſ ° ־ٰ ϰ , ̷ ڿ Ͼ ִ ̾. ġ ȿ ִ ģ ʹ ʰ ġḦ ޾Ҵٰ ߴ. װ 忡 ִٰ ޾ Paulman Ƴ 븶 ƼľƳ ǻ簡 "ġ ȴٰ ȮѴ. ǻ ̴ٰ ߴ. ƼľƳ ǻ簡 ٰ Ѵ." ߴٴ 翡 οǾ. װ ƴ϶ Ǿ. 뺯 ߴٰ Ѵ. " ߽ڿ ü ġḦ Ǿ ־ϴ. ״ ֱٿ ϰ Ű 忡 ̻ ̷ պ ̱ ϰ 2ÿ ߴ." Ƴ ü ġᰡ ȿ ٰ ʴ´. ׳ "츮 ΰ ׸ ġ ߽ ǻ鿡 縦 ϰ ʹ. ׸ ϱ ؼ Ϸ 24ð ׿ ִ 鿡Ե ϰ ʹ." ߴ. *

õ ׸ : ad hoc hypothesis, cold reading, communal reinforcement, control study, Occam's razor, optional starting and stopping, pathological science, the placebo effect, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking, self-deceptionsubjective validation, testimonials  and wishful thinking.


б ڷ

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993) 

Copyright 2000
Robert Todd Carroll

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