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Robert Todd Carroll

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occult statistics, Ʈ

Ʈ , ߼ ö Ͱ , Ʈ ̷ȭϴµ 踦 ϴ Ų. , ڿ 糪 Ʈ ȭϴµ Ǵ ̴.

¥ ʰ ε (anomalies) ã ʽɸ, , , ǻ͸ Ͽ, ͹Ͼ Ϳ , ùϰ м ִ. ̿ ǹ ִ 踦 ߰ϸ, ׵ Ͽ, ߰ Ʈ ڿ Ŷ Ѵ. Ʈ 翡 ־, ǻ(spurious correlation)̶ ʴ´.

, William Dembski " ߷ : Ȯ 쿬 ϴ (The Design Inference: Eliminating Chance through Small Probailities)" "ʽɸڰ ʻ ϴµ ϴ ؼ ʸ οѴ. Ư, å(ʽɸ 迡 Ͼ ) pġ ϰ ִ. , и Carl Jung ü 信 Ѵ. [ å]ü Ȯ Ѵ." .(Rabki Gupta, )

Ȱ, ϴ ̰к Robert Jahnк ̲ п(The Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research) α׷, ΰ̶ ۷Ͱ ǽ ؼ پ , , , Ȥ ü ġ ִ ⿡ ϸ鼭, ׵, 迡 쿬 ƴ϶ 'ΰ̶ ۷Ϳ ' ٰ ۿ ٰ ϰ ִ.

Charles Tart Dean Radin̶ 屺 ̲ ִ ʽɸ ܵ, ܻ ESP ϴ Ŷ ϰ ִ. ĶϾ ķ۽ Jessica Utts, ESP Ÿ ̱ ؼ, 缺 ־. Ʈ ڴ,  Ȯ Ģ ߳Ƿ Ʋ, 쿬δ ٰ ϰ ִ.

Gauquelin 踦 ̿ؼ 'ȭȿ' 踦 ãҴٰ ϴ , ׸ ƴϴ. ֱٿ, ︸ ÷̺ Gunter Sachs ̶ Ϸ, м ͸ ؼ, õü (Die Akte Astrologie) ϰ ִ.

Ʈ ӵǰ ִ иϸ, ׸ ̳, Ȥ ȣ , 쿬 ʴٴ ٰ ȣ پ ⿡ ̴.

ȸǷڴ Ʈ ʴ´

ȸǷڴ, ̹ Ͼ Ȯ Ͼ ٰ ϴ ǿ ʴ´. ̹ Ͼ , ̵ и Ͼ ƴ ̴. ȣ ְ '쿬 ' ¾, ̶ 翡 ڿĢ ¾, Ȯ Ȯ ϴ Ұϴ. ̰ Ÿڱ⸦ ļ 쿬 ܸ ϼ ɼ̳, Ȥ 𳪸ڰ ڿ 'ϼ' ɼ̶ () ؼ, ̳ Ʈ ٴ ϸ, ȸǷڿԴ  ݵ Ѵ.

ȸǷڴ, Ʈ Žϴ  (statistical anomalies) Ͼ ׷ ʴ´. ȸǷڴ, 谡 ҿ ̳ ۿ Ǵ 찡 ִٴ ߰Ѵ. ESP , Ҽǰ ҿ з̴(Rawcliffe,Randi). ȸǷڴ, ʻ ϴ ߿, ְ , Ȯ, ÿ , the clustering illusion, ȸǿ  ߴ ٴ ϰ ִ.

Sometimes the variables being correlated are ambiguous or vaguely defined, if defined at all, so that practically anything can count in support of the occult hypothesis. What is a "great" athlete or a "rebel"? Sometimes the methods of finding patterns are deceptive and inappropriate, e.g., finding hidden messages in texts. As John Ruscio notes, "If you look in a fantastic number of places, and count anything that you stumble upon as supportive evidence, you are guaranteed to discover meaning where none exists" (45).

, ϰų,  ҸȮϰ ǵǴ 찡 . ̰ ǰ Ǹ, δ  ͵ Ʈ ޹ħ ٰŷ ִ. ' ', Ȥ '׾' , ü ΰ? , ӿ ޼ ߰ Ͱ , ߰ϴ ̰ų Ȥ 쵵 ִ. John Ruscio Ѱ ó, ' Ҹ ؼ, 쿬 ģ Ÿ 꿡 , ƹ͵ Ϳ ǹ̸ ߰ߴٰ Ȯϰ ȴ.'(45)

ȸǷڴ, Ͼ ǿ Ͼ ʴ ̶ ̰ Դ. ǻ(spurious correlations) Ϻδ Ȯ ؼ Ͼ Ϻδ Ȯϱ Ͼ 쵵 ִ. ̰͵ , ϴ (clairvoyant dreams) پٴ Ͱ ̴.

, ȸǷڴ ʻ󿡴 ų ʴ´. ֳϸ ̷ ʻ, ϴ ߿,  Ư 󵵷 Ͼ Ǿ ̴.

25 ִٸ, Ŀ 300 ٸ Եȴ. Ϲ, 쿬 Ͼ Ȯ 5% ̸̶ Ǵ ' ' θ. , 300 Ǵ ӿ, ǻ 15 Ÿ ȴ. (Rusio,45)

̷ ǻ, ƹ͵ ʴ Ͱ ΰ踦 ϰų Ȥ ʴ ź ϴ post hoc theorizing ϴ Ȥ̴.

: toshijun  

õ ׸ : ȣ Bible Code, the clustering illusion, confirmation bias, ESP, the Forer effect, law of really large numbers, "Mars effect, numerology, optional starting and stopping, post hoc fallacy, the regressive fallacy, Ÿ remote viewing and selective thinking.


б ڷ

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn't' So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993).

Huff, Daryl. How to Lie with Statistics (W.W. Norton & Company, 1954).

McDonald, John."200% Probability and Beyond: The Compelling Nature of Extraordinary Claims in the Absence of Alternative Explanations," Skeptical Inquirer, January/February, 1998.

Paulos, John Allen. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Anchor Books, 1996).

Paulos, John Allen. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences (Vintage Books, 1990).

Rawcliffe, Donovan Hilton. Occult and Supernatural Phenomena(New York: Dover Publications, 1988).

Randi, James. Flim-Flam! (Buffalo, New York: Prometheus Books,1982).

Ruscio, John. "The Perils of Post-Hockery," Skeptical Inquirer, November/December 1998.

Copyright 1998
Robert Todd Carroll

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