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Robert Todd Carroll

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full moon,

full moon, ˿ ڻ, ȯ, 糭, , , ӽ ׸ ΰ ̾߱ ǾԴ.  ֱ⿡ ֽ ȱ⵵ Ѵ.   ٸ ŭ ̴. ( : ֽ ʴٴ ǹԴϴ.)

̷ ټ ̷ ִ.

ݱ ̷ Ϻ 糪ƽ(luna ƾ ǹѴ. : lunatic ̶ ǹ̿ ϴ , Ȥ ̶ ֽϴ. ) ġ Ȯϴٴ  ִ ͵ Ȯ ʾҴ. (ΰ ൿ ų ٴ Դ. µ ̼ ſ * ̰ ۹ 忡 Ѵٴ ̴.*)

Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over 100 studies on lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a reliable and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to chance) between the full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the following:

̸̹(Ivan Kelly),ӽ (James Rotton) ù(Roger Culver) ⿡ 100 ̻ Ͽ, ް Ȥ  ֱ Ʒ ׸ ŷ ְ ǹִ 踦 ʾҴٰ ȴ.

̷ ް  Ͱ ΰ踦 ߴٸ, ü ̷ ̽ ϴ ϱ?

̸, , ׸ ù 4 ǽϰ ִ. ؿ , , , ׸ ϰ ִ. ⿡ 5° ȭ(communal reinforcement) ԽŰ Ѵ.

߸ü ̽ .

Kelly ̽ ȭ Ҽ Ѵٴ ߴ. "߸ü ް ΰ ൿ õǾٴ ϸ ̷ Ϲ ߿ θ ٴ ϵ ƴϴ" ׵ Ѵ. ʹ " ΰ ൿ ģٴ " ȣѴ. ƹ ġ ʴ´ٸ ̰ ̾ ̾߱Ⱑ ̴ٶ ׵ Ѵ. ȿ ȭ ŵ ߿ 踦 ϱ⿣ ̱ ص ̷ ŵ ãƼ ׾Ƴ ׷ ʴ. 迡 ϴ ڱ⸸ Ȯ ɼ ϴ ̴. ̷ ŵ ϱ ׷ ұϰ 鿡Դ ִ.

ް õ ̽ ΰ¿ ٰŰ ִ. , ѽø/ٺδϾ μ 忡 " ޿ ȴ." ޵Ǿ ִ. ̷ ӽŷ ߸ θ Ͽ. (Eugen Jonas) ιŰ ɸڴ ΰ ¿  ̽ſ ٰŸ αå ӽŷ ϴ ´.   ߴ ȿ ٴ ó ̿ ִ. ׷, ް  ǹִ 赵 ãµ ߴ. (See "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review," by R. Martens, I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-934, "Lunar phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens, Psychological Reports, 75, 507-511). 1991 Ű Ը ź 4,256 Ʊ ϰ ֱ ϰ źѴٰ ߴ(Kelly, et al. 1996, 19). 1994⿡ Ż 丮Ƽ Ƽ ÷η 5Ⱓ 7,842 ̵ ߴ. ׵ ֱ ¾ ̵ ̿  赵 ٴ ߰ߴ. (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).

ֱ 迡  ŵ ұϰ Ϻ 迡 ؼ Ϸ Ѵ. fertilityrhythms.com,  ִ AstraConception "Angela"

...ü ؼ ȣ ۰ü ȣ ȣ ٲԵȴ. ۰ü ۰ ӽŸ뿡 Ϻθ Ѵ.

߾ ϴ 鿡 ־, ̷ ⸦ ˹߽Ű ȭ̴. ª ϴ ¾ ( ӿ ) ۰ü ¦⸦ ؾ ϴ ̶ ȣ ؼѴ.

, ΰ ߾ ϴ ƴϴ. 츮 ֱ Ѵ Ÿ ִ. ̷ Ѵ ִ ͵ ̴.

 ̶ ͵ ̷Ӵ. ġ ֱⰡ 28 ó ü Ǻ 28ϸ ѹ .

׷, ̰ ſ ̷ο ̴... ִٸ..(ڴ ϴ а̴ Ѵٴ ͵ ߰ߴ.)

... ̰ ϴ ƴ϶ ¾ ϴ ̷ ˹߽Ų. ۰ü ȣ ޾Ƽ ȣ ȣ ٲپ ָ ̰ ̷ ֱ⸦ ۽Ų.

ֱⰡ ؼ ޵ 츮 ֱ ֱ⿡ Ǿ ִ.

׷  ־ ſ ̸, ߷ ġ δ. Դٰ ֱ 28 1 29.53̴. * 츮 Ϻδ ֱⰡ ġ ʴ´ٴ ġë ̴. Դٰ ڿ 츮 (speicies) ϴ ϴ ȣϰ Ǿ ͵ ϱ ƴ. ޺ ׸ ϸ ̰ 츮 ɼ ϴ ƴ϶ ϴ ̴.

ȭ ް ֱⰡ ¾ƶ ߴϸ鼭 ׸ dz ⸦ ̿Ͽ (Ȥ ε ) ֱⰡ ȴٰ Ѵ. ں̳ Ȥ ߴϸ鼭 dz Һ ޴ ۼ ϰ ֱⰡ ް õ ʴ´ٴ ˾Ƴ ̰ ׷ . Ͼ   ִ. ׷ ظ 󿡴 Ƿ 쿬 ֱⰡ Ŭ ´ ִ. ̰Ϳ  ̻ ǹ̰ ִٰ ϱ ƴ.

츮 ˾ƾ ȭԿ ȣ Űȭ ȭ ٴ ̴. ӽ " ֱ Ʈ ݼ Ͻ  (, , ޶, dz, 븣dz, ׽佺׷, ڸƼ, ټ[fluid content õ], ȣ, pH, 17-OHCS, Ƶ巹ũ ȣ) 赵 ãƳµ ߴ" Ѵ.*

밳 ȣ Űȭչ ൿ شٴ ˷ о߰ Ǿ ̶ ̴.

Kelly شٴ ް ȭ ƴٰ ϰ ִ. ٴ ģٸ ̰ ſ ̰ ΰ ĥ ִٰ Ѵ. ġ ſ ̴. Ӵϰ ̸ Ⱦִ ̵鿡 ۿϴ õ2鸸質 ϴ(Kelly et al., 1996, 25). õ George O. Abell ߷ ƴ Ⱑ ƴ ͺ ۴ٰ Ѵ (Abell 1979). ̷ ǿ ұϰ ų ִٴ θ ִ. ׷ ׷ ¾ õ ų ¾ ޿ ؼ ġ .

ΰ κ ̷ٴ ͵ ΰ ĥ ΰ ൿ ĥ ִٴ 信 ־. ΰ 80% ̷ ִٰ Ѵ. ׷ ̰ ߸ ̴. ǥ 80% ̴. Դٰ bound   ġ ü bound Ǿ ִ. ( : ̺κ 𸣰ڽϴ.)

, ġ ް Ÿ ̳ ʽ´̳İ ߿ ƴϴ. ޿ ٽ Ǵµ 29.53 Ÿ ̸ ֱ 27.5̴. ( : ֱ 27.5 ׵ ¾ ϹǷ ⿡ · Ǵµ 29.53 Դϴ.) (, ñ) "ް ʽ´ ߰ ƹ ִ."(Kelly et al. 1990, 989). ʽ´̳ ޿ Ͼ. ׷ ̰ ߷ ƴ϶ ¾Ӱ ־ ¾  ̴."(Kelly et al. 1990, 989).

߷ ġ ȿ κ ٸ ް õ Բ Ƴ The Lunar Effect (1978) δ. å 1996 ο  How the Moon Affects You ǵǾ. 1982 ް ༺ Ͼ ĶϾƿ Ͼٰ ߸ ߾.

νİ ȭ

, ߸ü, , ȣ, ǻ, 뵿, Ȥ ٸ 鿡Լ ݺؼ ް õ ̽ŵ ϴ ̴. ϴ ϱ ϰ ȸ ȭ Ǹ ׵ ׵ڷ ϴ ڷῡ ؼ ȴ.  ߸ ߻Ѵٰ ״ ߻ ٸ Ⱓ Ͼ ʰԵȴ. ̻ ߻ϰ ׶ ħ ٸ ̰Ϳ ΰ踦 ϰ ̴. ̻ ߻ߴµ ƴϾٸ  ΰ赵 Ϸ ̰ ޿  Ͼٴ ΰ ݴ ŷ ޾Ƶ鿩 ʴ´. ߾ ǰ Ƹ ְ ̴. ̷ ӵǸ ް  (ް ) 迡 ȭȴ.

ް ׸ ڻ

Ƹ ް ؼ θ ̽ ̴. ׷, 100 Ѵ Kelly, Rotton and Culver " ֱ ȭ Lunacy ̸ ൿ 1% 3/100 ̴"(1996, 18) Ͽ. ӽ ư "̷ ̷̰ų ǿ Ȥ ƹ ǰ 0 ̴.*

, ڻ쿡 ģٴ ͵ ٰŰ ̴. Martin, Kelly Saklofske 30Ⱓ غ ȭ ڻ, , ڻ⵵, ڻ ̿  赵 ߰ ߴ. 1997 Gutiérrez-García Tusell 帮 897 ڻ м ȭ ڻ  ǹִ 赵 ã ߴ(1997, 248). ̷ ޿  ִ Ͼ ãµ δ ƴ*, κ Ź Ǹ ʴ´.


2000 2 1 : Sunday-Times ˶ Ȧ Ʃ Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer Health Institute of Reutlingen Norbert Filipp "50 ʽ´ް ֱ⿡ ؼ binge drinking( ϴ ) ִٴ ̴.

Ȧ Mittmeyer and Filipp " Һ " ü Ʈ 16,495 󵵸 "ʽ´ް ް Һ и 谡 ش" ߴ.

Ȧ Ʒ ִ. :

ü 100ml ״ 2ml Ѵ - - 5ϰ ֱ ȿ .

175 ڵ 2ֿ ߱ 2 üǾ Ⱓ 161 ٸ ñ⿡ 120 .

ſ ؼϱ ̴. (: Ǯ ߽ϴ.) 175 ڵ üǾ ߴ 5ϵ ù° ° ٸ, ׸ Ⱓ 161 ٸ 㿡 ξ ڵ ٴ ̵ȴ. ׷Ƿ ´ٸ ڵ ̰Ͱ ް ƹ 踦 ã ̴. ׷ ׵ ' ֱ' 5 ֱ⸦ â ̰ ٷ ׵ ã ߴ 踦 Ÿ ־ٰ ߴ.

׷ и Ȧ ǹ̸ ߸ Ȧ German Press Agency DPA ߸ ߸ о ̾ ڷḦ ؼϴµ ־.

Eindhoven (Netherlands) University of Technology Jan Willem Nienhuys "Ȧ ̾߱ German Press Agency DPA Ⱦ "̶ ߴ. Nienhuys ϸ Ȧ 5 ֱ ̷ ǥ Mittmeyer and Filipp ʴ´ٴ ̴. Դٰ ü 16,495 668 15,827 ߿ ־ 4,512 0.2% () ʰߴ.

Nienhuys ϸ 161̶ ڴ Ѵ ȿ üǴ ǹϸ ڴ 4,512 28 Ǹ( Ѵ ̴ 29.53̴.) ׷Ƿ Ȯ հ 161 ƴ϶ 153 Ǿ Ѵ. Nienhuys ϸ Ȧ Ѱ ε ٷ Mittmeyer and Filipp ް ǹ 谡 ߰ߴٰ ε ̵ ׷ ־ ׵ ڷ м ʾҴٰ Ѵ. Nienhuys ϸ ̷ м ǽϸ " ü ϴ ̺"̶ ߰ ̶ Ѵ. ״ м ׽Ʈ ǽϸ p ̻ ʿ伺 ٴ شٰ ߴ.

Nienhuys ˷ ڷᰡ Ʒ ִ. Day 0 ʽ´̸ day 14 ̴.

day      drunks   drinkers, including drunks
0        145      551
1        160      528
2        162      552
3        122      527
4        162      538
5        157      531
6        156      504
7        158      560
8        140      523
9        152      540
10       150      552
11       146      477
12       173      563
13       150      545
14       150      523
15       149      498
16       145      543
17       142      539
18       143      507
19       119      508
20       157      532
21       163      552
22       156      513
23       148      530
24       154      528
25       158      536  
26       175      582
27       176      581
28       169      590
---------------------
        4437    15553
missing   75      274
       
---------------------
        4512    15827

3 12, 26, ׸ 27̴. ŵ ˰ !

(Nienhuys "Triply garbled tripe" ο Ǹ ؼ غ̴. ״ ģϰԵ Ǹ 纻 ־. )

 

: toshijun  


õ ׸ : communal reinforcement, confirmation bias, control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking, self-deception, and subjective validation.


б ڷ

reader comments

Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science Confronts the Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist Arnold L. Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human Emotions.

Abell, George O.  "The moon and the birthrate," Skeptical Inquirer, Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.

Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books, 1990).

Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar Cycles: A Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.

Guti?rez-Garc?, J. M. and  F. Tusell. "Suicides and the Lunar Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.

Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide (Knopf, 1999).

Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H. Saklofske. "Geophysical variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of the relationship between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar cycles: No Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.

Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon was Full and Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human Behavior and Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds., The Outer Edge (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of an article which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter 1985-86 (vol. 10, no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other Paradigms of the Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1991), pp. 222-234.

Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide and Lunar Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 787-795.

Copyright 1998
Robert Todd Carroll

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Last updated 12/02/98

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