sd.gif (2133 bytes)
Robert Todd Carroll

 the truth is in here!
SkepDic.com

vertline.gif (1078 bytes)  

confirmation bias, Ȯ

    ͺ Ϳ ް, ϰ Ǵ ΰ ϰ ̴. -- ý

Ȯ̶, ̴. ڱ ų Ȯִ ͵ ߰ϰų, ã , ݴ ڱ ų信 ϴ ϰų, ãƺ, Ȥ ġ ִ ִ. , ῡ Ͼٰ ϴ ִٰ . , ῡ Ͼ ָ , ̿ Ⱓ Ͼ Ǹ ʰ ȴ. ̷ ݺǸ, ִٴ ų, δϰ ȭȴ.

̿ , ó ԰̳ ų ޹ħϴ Ϳ Ը Ǿְ, ̰Ϳ ݴǴ ͸ , ԰̳ ų 쿡 . ų, Ȯ ų ȿ Ȯ 迡 Ͽ ޹ħ , ų信 ´ Ϳ Ը дٰ ؼ ߸ ̴. , ſ Ͽ ´ٸ, 츮 ո ͸ ϴ Ѿ ȴ.

Ȯ , ڱǰ߿ ϰų, ڱǰ ޹ħ , ġ ŷѴٴ .(κġ, 3). 丶 κġ(Thomas Gilovich), "Ȯ ġ ִ , Ƹ νķ Ҹ ϱ ̴١ ϰ ִ. Ÿ 󸶳 ڱ ǰ ޹ħϴ° ϴ , װ 󸶳 ڱ ǰ ݷϴ° ϴ ͺ ξ . ESP (clairvoyant dream) . ʴ ϰ ̰ų, Ȥ ڷᰡ ֵǾ , װ ߴٰ ϴ , װ ߿ϴٰ ؾ Ѵ. ڱǰ ϰ Ȯ ׿ Ը δ , £ ش. ڱǰ߿ Ͽ Ϸ , ڱǰ ޹ħϴ Ÿ . (κġ).

ڴ, ڽ Ȯϵ ϰų, ͸ ϱ , δ Ȯ . ׵ ݴǴ ͸ Ϸ , ڱ⿡ Ҹ Ϸ ʱ . , ʽɸ ESP۰ Ḧ ϴ ڴ. ȸ κ Ư, ô뿡 Ͽ ' ' Һи 踦 ߰Ϸ ϴ , Ȯ .

Frank Sulloway "Born to Rebel" ߴ ó, ȭп ڷ ۰ ϰ ȴٸ, ¾ ȭ ϴ ߰ ̴. ׷, ڷḦ Ƴø(Anaximander) Ͽ ƿ챸Ƽ Ѵٸ, ٸ ̴. ֳϸ, ȭ, źεǾ ̴. ʸ  "â(ķν): ذϱ õ (Creation (Omphalos): an attempt to untie the geological knot ,1857) ̵ Ѵٸ Ƹ ̷ ޹ħ ڷḦ ̴. л ͸ âп ϵ õϴ ̾. ׷, ȭ θ âߴٰ ϴ Ϲ Ʊ , ݿ ͼ ̸ . , ƴٴ ڷḦ, ֱ(Archbishop Ussher) , 4004⿡ θ âߴٴ ϰ Ϸ ߴ. ļ, ݺ  ⵵ ʾ .

ڴ, ݴǰ ϴ ڿ ȹ ϸ, Ȯ ϵ ̴.  , Ȯ Ͽ ׻ ο ΰ, ͸ 캸 ȵǴ. ̷ ڿ ƴϹǷ Ϲε Ȯ .

õ ׸ : ad hoc hypothesis, communal reinforcement, control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking, self-deception, subjective validation, and wishful thinking.


б ڷ

reader comments

Evans, B. Bias in Human Reasoning: Causes and Consequences (Psychology Press, 1990). review

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn't' So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993).

Gould, Stephen Jay. The Flamingo's Smile (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1987). (contains an essay on Omphalos)

Copyright 1998
Robert Todd Carroll

larrow.gif (1051 bytes) confabulation

Last updated 12/03/98

conjuring rarrow.gif (1048 bytes)